TWIB: This Week in Bizball
What happens to Newcastle when the hangover wears off, Abu Dhabi's global importance and why Leeds are the new Fulham
What if Newcastle’s best result of the weekend wasn’t even at Wembley?
The story: After Newcastle’s well deserved Carabao Cup win breaking a 56-year trophy-less run, it feels churlish to ponder if the season’s real prize has not yet been won. But much of the week’s coverage has focussed on where next for Newcastle, whether they can retain Isak, Guimarães and Gordon and how they can override the PSR brakes without waiting for a new stadium in 2032 (unless they can also float the 160 pieces down the Tyne like the other United). Does the short term future of the club hinge on the 10 game mini league left in the Premier League?
Comment: Ponder this - Newcastle’s win at Wembley wasn’t even their most important result of last weekend. Financially, the Carabao Cup is worth nothing - all in, ie after travel, accommodation, bonuses, celebratory bar bills etc, Newcastle’s trophy may even have lost the club money! Similarly, the contingent Europa Conference prize is barely worth punching the air for especially as Newcastle look very likely to capture at least a full Europa Conference place via the league. So a 2-2 in Manchester, a 1-0 Chelsea defeat across North London and a home defeat at Bournemouth were arguably just as important to the future of Newcastle.
The importance of 2025/26 Champions League qualification for Newcastle cannot be overstated, especially given a) the financial gulf between that competition and the Europa League or Europa Conference; and b) the format change since Newcastle’s 23/24 appearance. Perhaps for more than any other club, Champions League qualification for Newcastle is transformational and pivotal.
The revenue (and profit) difference is enormous - Newcastle could be looking at £90-100m from a Champions League campaign compared to less than £15m from even winning the Europa Conference and compared to the fun but disappointing Group of Death in the 23/24 Champions League (£30m plus three Champions League home games). This is how Newcastle summarised it’s Champions League revenue in the recently published 23/24 accounts:
For reference, Manchester United or Spurs could receive around that £30m in UEFA prize money for winning the Europa League this season albeit that the real prize there is the Champions League place for the winner (or the Get Out of Jail Free card as it should be known for certain clubs).
Like Manchester United and Spurs, Newcastle will currently be drawing up 2 different Summer spending plans. Without the comfort of the minimum, base case Champions League revenue for the 25/26 budget, spending will need to be restrained. After the clearly tight 23/24 PSR scramble, it was surprising that Newcastle were not more active in the January window. That prudence can only be explained by a similarly tight forecast for 24/25 and the desire to avoid another 30 June swap shop.
The good news is that when Eddie Howe looks at the remaining fixtures and is doing his forecast for the last 10 games, he will be feeling very confident. Even if Nottingham Forest are too far gone in momentum if not points, Newcastle are very well placed for 4th or 5th. One game in hand over everybody around them. Six home games. Manchester United at home 3 days after their critical Olympique Lyonnais game (and a 2nd leg with possible extra time). Aston Villa away 3 days after their enormous PSG game (another 2nd leg with possible extra time). Dead rubber opposition in Leicester, Ipswich, Palace, Arsenal (by then) and Everton.
Barring a massive hangover from their arrival at the mini-promised land, Newcastle are going to make the top 5. Newcastle’s real ‘trophy’ for this season hasn’t even been won yet.
Key City “players” relaxed and busy elsewhere
The story: It has been a busy week for at least three key City “players” in the week that was meant to (based on nothing but a hint of logic) see the release of the initial 115 judgment. City Chairman, Khaldoon Al Mubarak was at the White House on Wednesday. In the House of Lords on Monday, Lord Pannick was an active participant in the Independent Football Regulator report stage (Report stage is a further chance to closely scrutinise elements of the bill and make changes.) Meanwhile, Simon Cliff, City’s General Counsel and apparently Musk-like (presumably without the trillions) was said to “believe he actually runs English football now” in Oliver Holt’s panicked (or should that be Pannicked) piece in the Mail.
Comment: I discussed the timing of the release of 115 and some of the challenges that the media will have in the coverage of the story on Talksport on Tuesday. Many of the comments pointed out, not unfairly, that I had said many of the same things before. And it is true. Right from the start I have been vocal in believing that City employees, City fans and general observers deserve more detail as to the timetable. Sadly, it appears everybody simply has to wait. Impressively in some ways, nobody at all seems to know when the decision is coming and aside from the logic of it being released during this International break, there is no White Smoke either in London or Manchester. Body language experts will have seen a confident Lord Pannick happily joking about how expensive Sports lawyers are as he reminded the Lords of his professional interests (acting for City) in the matter.
Al Mubarak sat opposite Trump and Vance is a stark reminder that the 115 allegations involve a senior executive who is sat at the very top table on the global stage. It would take some craft for the Independent Commission to make serious findings of wrong doing against City that somehow did not involve the club’s Chairman since 2008. Al Mubarak, who celebrates his 50th birthday this year (like me, as Jim White exclusively broke on Talksport), is CEO of Mubadala, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds (AUM over $300bn). He also holds senior positions within the Government of Abu Dhabi, including as a member of the Executive Council since 2006, a member of the Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs, and as the founding chairman of the Executive Affairs Authority. He has much to lose if he really risked it all to sign Roque Santa Cruz in 2009.
Fulham is to West Ham what Leeds is to Everton
The story: In 2009, following Sheffield United’s £18m settlement with West Ham, Fulham raised a £700,000 claim against West Ham for the lost merit award (one league position) caused by West Ham’s Tevez breaches. In the 2021/22 season, Leeds arguably suffered a lost merit award (one league position) caused by Everton’s (admitted) PSR breaches. In 2021/22, this represented just over £2m - £1.69m in lost UK merit and a further £369,000 in lost International merit.
Comment: Everton fans seem to believe I have a vendetta against the club especially after explaining how Burnley’s claim might work in this article. It is nonsense but no doubt pointing out the obvious similarities between Fulham 06/07 and Leeds 21/22 will upset a few. Fulham’s claim relating to 2006/7 had obvious merit - the team finished 2 points behind West Ham and the FA arbitration (Sheffield United v West Ham) had concluded that but for their breaches, West Ham would have got at least 3 fewer points than it did. Fulham were prevented from relying on that finding but it is not a leap to suggest, whatever followed in secret would have supported Fulham’s causation case.
The claim was probably settled by West Ham but there was never any public confirmation nor any disclosure in any club accounts I can find. If Burnley are successful in their claim against Everton, even partially, Leeds would appear to have a very strong case for Everton’s additional merit payment of £2m for finishing above them - it simply requires a tribunal to consider it more likely than not (ie on a balance of probabilities) that Everton would have got two fewer points but for their admitted overspend. It is not impossible that Everton have already paid up which is why we have heard nothing of Leeds in the Burnley conversation. If the case is on-going or Leeds are waiting to see how the Burnley case unfolds, it is going to present some interesting litigation/disclosure issues given that the executive that probably knows most about the case, Angus Kinnear, is about to switch sides to become Everton CEO.
Shorts:
Bayern’s massive commercial appeal to some of its shareholders - Swiss Ramble’s insightful Bayern Munich analysis reminded us all of the power their “associated party” sponsors. Fortunately, the Bundesliga don’t appear to test €50m (fifty million) per annum car supply contracts for fair market value.
$100m+ for the Club World Cup winner - Ben Jacobs reports that a European Club World Cup winner (as you would expect it to be) will receive in excess of $100m. That is serious money especially if the winner came from the Premier League and, say, had failed to qualify for the Champions League for 25/26. Ironically, given Newcastle’s PSR struggles, the prize money will be effectively funded by PIF/KSA via its investment in DAZN.
Transfer fee rumours and confirmed reality - some aggregators justified Manchester United missing out on Chelsea signing Geovany Quenda with imaginative and completely fake add ons taking the fee to €70m. The small group of listed football clubs including Juventus, Sporting, Porto, Benfica, Lyon and Galatasaray are required to spell out the terms of their deals thereby killing arguments about fees dead. As always, note the agent (intermediação) fees and remember this is just one side of the deal.
